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August 15, 2005
Predictors of Character Abandonment
Server Sample: RP (High), PvE (Medium), PvE (High)
Sampling Period: Week 1: 6/10 - 6/17. Week 2: 07/05 - 07/12.
Sampling Resolution: ~14 minutes
Parsing Method: We tracked all unique characters in both periods. For each character, we noted their playing time, guild affiliation, group ratio, starting level, class, and race. Then we tabulated which of the characters observed in June were not observed in July (both 1 week periods). This way we generated two lists of characters - those who were observed again after a month and those that were not.
Data Filter: None
Sample Size: 75,314 characters
Once we had the list of characters along with whether they were observed again or not, we ran a logistic regression with the following variables as predictors: playing time, grouping ratio, level, guild size, and guild affiliation.
As expected, level and playing time were the best predictors of abandonment. Whether the character was guilded was the third best predictor. Interestingly, as long as a character was guilded, the size of the guild did not matter.
The model had an r-square of .23 and had a classification success rate of 75% for abandonment and 70% for retention.
Posted at August 15, 2005 02:16 PM
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