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September 27, 2005
Switching Guilds
Server Sample: RP (High), PvE (Medium), PvE (High), PvP (High), PvP (High)
Sampling Period: 8/07/2005 12:00 am - 8/14/2005 12:00 am
Sampling Resolution: ~12 minutes
Parsing Method: The sample unit is each unique character. Each character was tracked across the server logs. Total playing time, lowest observed level, highest observed level, guild affiliation, and zones seen in were parsed.
Data Filter: None
Sample Size: 148,846 characters
We wanted to get a sense of the pattern of migration from guilds to one another. Also, we were interested in how often people left guilds and whether this changed over the level spread. For each character, we calculated the following variables:
1) Unguild Event - for each time a character is observed in a guild in snapshot X but not observed to be in a guild in snapshot X+1, we increment their unguild event score by 1.
2) Guild Switch Event - for each time a character is observed in a guild in snapshot X and then observed in a different guild in snapshot X+1, we increment their guild switch event by 1.
3) Guilded - whether a character is guilded or not at the end of the sampling period. In other words, whether a character is guilded or not the last time we see them in a snapshot.
The results challenged some of our gut intuitions. For example, we would have guessed that guild switch events would be more common than unguild events. This is because with a sampling window of 12 minutes, almost all characters who had the intention of switching guilds would probably have done so during that window. We found the opposite, unguild events were far more frequent than guild switch events and this effect magnified over the level spread. Between levels 21-40, unguild events are 3 times more frequent than guild switch events (4% vs. 13%), and between levels 41-60, unguild events are 7 times more likely than guild switch events (3% vs. 21%). In other words, when characters leave a guild, it seems that they usually do not have a target guild they are intending to switch to. This leads us to believe that many characters become so frustrated or unsatisfied with a guild that they would rather leave and be alone.
The other interesting finding was seeing the familiar spikes. This time, they occur just before every 10th level, most noticeably the 39th and 49th. It's not clear to us though what it is about these levels (apart from their being close to big skill levels) that is causing the level of discontent with one's guild. Any guesses?
Posted at September 27, 2005 04:03 PM
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Comments
Some of the differences in data could be attributed to the rules of the guild involved.. For example, some guilds require a commitment prior to being accepted; the individual would need to quit their current guild for the application period.. This could attribute to some of the differences between the events, although I don't know if this is significant enough to even effect the difference..
As far as the spikes go.. I have no idea..
Posted by: werelord at September 28, 2005 12:20 AM
You're also assuming that players always leave guilds of their own volition. If a player is kicked from the guild, it may take more than 12 minutes for them to find a new one. ;)
Posted by: icyslush at September 28, 2005 08:46 AM
Icyslush: lol! An excellent point. In fact, I wonder which proportion of the players "in-between" guilds are undergoing a trial period for a new one, as suggested by Werelord, or were simply kicked out. Thanks to you two for your insightful comments.
Posted by: Nicolas Ducheneaut at September 28, 2005 10:19 AM
People who leave a guild may be shopping for another to do lvl60 raids, taking more than 12 minutes to shop. As for the bumps before N*10 levels, it could have to do with people switching to a better group for the PvP Battlegrounds?
Posted by: Ed at September 28, 2005 12:57 PM
I agree with the comment about switching for battlegrounds. A lot of players will wait until the n9th level (ie 29, 39, etc) before entering the battlegrounds, in order to be the highest for that level cap. Venturing into the battlegrounds may lead them to drop their current guild for a more pvp oriented one.
Posted by: Ryan at September 29, 2005 02:15 PM
Ryan, that's an interesting theory. I wonder if we can test it.
Posted by: Eric Nickell at October 3, 2005 10:30 AM
As a guild leader, people often leave after personal disagreements with guild leadership or members. these bubble up over time then boil over. Kicking out members will also mean they've no where to go. The instances of members leaving with a destination in mind is very rare.
Posted by: robin mciver at October 13, 2005 11:59 AM
Also those who leave with a destination in mind are higly unlikely to reach their destination within 12 minutes after leaving the guild. The timing of leaving is often related to the properties of the now-former guild while the timing of joining destination guild is dependant on the properties of the destination.
One much more interesting data would be time from unguild to re-guild per individual. You would probably find a concentration described by a bell from 1-5 days (or so). The magnitude of that bell would be very interesting as it would say much about the soft relations within the social network of a WoW server. :-)
Posted by: Wolfe at November 1, 2005 08:30 AM
Wolfe, that would be an interesting figure. Let's see how hard it would be to pull out.
Posted by: Eric Nickell at November 1, 2005 08:39 AM
There can be some hard feelings when a character switches from one guild to another, especially when this is done at max level. Both the character and the destination guild would likely want to minimize this. Over the years I've developed the habit of, and have been asked more than once to, allow a day or so to go by before joining the destination guild. This provides them with a plausible excuse that they recruited me when I was unguilded.
Posted by: eddystop at November 16, 2005 01:03 PM